the editor of a textbook publishing company is trying to decide whether to publish a proposed business statistics textbook. information on previous textbooks published indicate that 20% are huge successes, 30% are modest successes, 40% break even, and 10% are losers. however, before a publishing decision is made, the book will be reviewed. in the past, 99% of the huge successes received favorable reviews, 70% of the moderate successes received favorable reviews, 40% of the break-even books received favorable reviews, and 30% of the losers received favorable review
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The probability of getting a book published by the editor getting huge success is 0.165.Given:20% are huge successes, 30% are modest successes, 40% break even and 10% are losers.99% of huge successes received favorable reviews.70% of the moderate successes received favorable reviews.40% of the break-even books received favorable reviews and 30% of the losers received favorable reviews.P(Huge successes) = 0.2P(Moderate successes) = 0.3P(Break even successes) = 0.4P(Losers) = 0.1P(huge successes received favourable reviews) = 0.99P(moderate successes received favourable reviews) = 0.7P(break even books received favourable reviews) = 0.4P(losers received favourable reviews) = 0.3Using Baye’s Theorem,It can be calculated by the following formulaP = P(B). P(A/B)/ P (A)Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.P(B) is the probability that the book is a huge success. So,P(B) = 0.1P(A/B) is the probability that the book receives favorable reviews when it is a huge success.P(A/B) = 0.99P(A) is the probability that the book receives favorable reviews:P(A) = P1 + P2 + P3 + P4P1 is the probability that a book that is a huge success is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,P1 = 0.2 x 0.99 = 0.198P2 is the probability that a book that is a moderate success is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,P2 = 0.3 x 0.7 = 0.21P3 is the probability that a book that breaks even is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,P3 = 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16P4 is the probability that a book that is a loser is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,P4 = 0.1 x 0.3 = 0.03P(A) = 0.198 + 0.21 + 0.16 + 0.03 = 0.598P (huge success/favorable review ) = 0.1 x .99/ 0.598 = 0.165The probability of getting huge success in publishing a textbook is 0.165.To learn more about Baye’s Theorem visit: https://brainly.com/question/29100510#SPJ4